In this report, the authors seek to understand how the United States might use its military posture in Europe?particularly focusing on ground forces?as part of a strategy to deter Russian malign activities in the competition space.
This book examines the extent to which Russia’s strategic behavior is the product of its imperial strategic culture and Putin’s own operational code. The work argues that, by conflating personalistic regime survival with national security, Putin ensures that contemporary Russian national interest, as expressed through strategic behavior, is the synthesis of a peculiar troika: a long-standing imperial strategic culture, rooted in a partially imagined past; the operational code of a counter-intelligence president and decision-making elite; and the realities of Russia as a hybrid state. The book first examines the role of structure and agency in shaping contemporary Russian strategic behavior. It then provides a conceptual understanding of strategic culture, and applies this to Tsarist and Soviet historical developments. The book’s analysis of the operational code, however, demonstrates that Putinism is more than the sum of the past. At the end, the book assesses Putin’s statecraft and stress-tests our assumptions about the exercise of contemporary power in Russia and the structure of Putin’s agency. This book will be of interest to students of Russian politics and foreign policy, strategic studies and international relations.
This CSIS report explores how arms control remains an essential partner of deterrence and strategic stability. The competitive security environment, rise of disruptive technologies, and limited resources call for recoupling arms control with deterrence to address integrated, cross-domain threats today.
This book analyzes the United States and Russia’s nuclear arms control and deterrence relationships and how these countries must lead current and prospective efforts to support future nuclear arms control and nonproliferation. The second nuclear age, following the end of the Cold War and the demise of the Soviet Union, poses new challenges with respect to nuclear-strategic stability, deterrence and nonproliferation. The spread of nuclear weapons in Asia, and the potential for new nuclear weapons states in the Middle East, create new possible axes of conflict potentially stressful to the existing world order. Other uncertainties include the interest of major powers in developing a wider spectrum of nuclear weapons and delivery systems, possibly for use in limited nuclear wars, and the competitive technologies for antimissile defenses being developed and deployed by the United States and Russia. Other technology challenges, including the implications of cyberwar for nuclear deterrence and crisis management, are also considered. Political changes also matter. The early post-Cold War hopes for the emergence of a global pacific security community, excluding the possibility of major war, have been dashed by political conflict between Russia and NATO, by the roiled nature of American domestic politics with respect to international security, and by a more assertive and militarily competent China. Additionally, the study includes suggestions for both analysis and policy in order to prevent the renewed U.S.-Russian nuclear arms race and competition in new technologies. This volume would be ideal for graduate students, researchers, scholars and anyone who is interested in nuclear policy, international studies, and Russian politics.
This insightful and timely book considers the role of great-power competition in what has come to be known as gray zone conflict. Based on cutting-edge empirical research, it addresses the question: how can interactions between adversaries in international crises be managed in ways which avoid dangerous escalation? Drawing together diverse perspectives, an interdisciplinary team of academics and policy analysts take a data-driven approach to analysing international crises over the past 100 years. Taking the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as a backdrop for critical evaluation, chapters examine US and NATO approaches to the management of escalation in asymmetric conflicts. Ultimately, the book identifies areas where classical deterrence theory is incompatible with the realities of the contemporary conflict environment, and proposes innovative tools for managing crises in the future. Providing historical overviews of escalation management in international crises, this comprehensive book is essential reading for students and scholars of international politics, international relations, terrorism and security, and foreign policy, particularly those studying Chinese, Russian and US strategic decision making. It will also be beneficial to policy analysts, military leaders, and journalists focusing on contemporary international issues.
This volume offers an innovative and counter-intuitive study of how and why artificial intelligence-infused weapon systems will affect the strategic stability between nuclear-armed states. Johnson demystifies the hype surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) in the context of nuclear weapons and, more broadly, future warfare. The book highlights the potential, multifaceted intersections of this and other disruptive technology – robotics and autonomy, cyber, drone swarming, big data analytics, and quantum communications – with nuclear stability. Anticipating and preparing for the consequences of the AI-empowered weapon systems are fast becoming a critical task for national security and statecraft. Johnson considers the impact of these trends on deterrence, military escalation, and strategic stability between nuclear-armed states – especially China and the United States. The book draws on a wealth of political and cognitive science, strategic studies, and technical analysis to shed light on the coalescence of developments in AI and other disruptive emerging technologies. Artificial intelligence and the future of warfare sketches a clear picture of the potential impact of AI on the digitized battlefield and broadens our understanding of critical questions for international affairs. AI will profoundly change how wars are fought, and how decision-makers think about nuclear deterrence, escalation management, and strategic stability – but not for the reasons you might think.
Reflecting the profound changes in international society in the past decade and the challenges that all Powers’ diplomacy and statecraft face, whether opposing or encouraging these changes, this fully revised and updated edition provides a unique multifaceted assessment by experts of the new international order. Built around the thesis that Great Power rivalry dominated after the end of the Cold War, it examines how this multi-polarity has become more extreme. The Handbook assesses the diplomacy and statecraft of individual powers in seven key sections: • The Context of Diplomacy • The Great Powers • Middle Powers • Developing Powers • International Organisations and Military Alliances • The International Economy • Issues of Conflict and Co-operation It shows how diplomacy and statecraft have transformed on issues such as the evolving "America First" strategy; the strengthening of the People’s Republic of China; the growth of non-state actors in foreign policy; the unravelling of international arms control agreements; the aggressive nature of Russian foreign policy; and the emergence of major armed conflicts and the rise of terrorism and armed insurgencies around the world. It will be of interest to government and non-governmental actors, established scholars and students in the fields of international relations, history, and military studies.
The Arctic has become a global arena. This development can only be comprehensively understood from a transdisciplinary perspective encompassing ecological, cultural, societal, economic, industrial, geopolitical, and security considerations. This book offers thorough explanations of Arctic developments and challenges. Global warming is in large part the driving force behind the transformation of the Arctic by making access possible to the areas previously out of reach for mining and shipping. An all-year ice-free Arctic Ocean, a reality possible as soon as perhaps 2030, creates a new dynamic in the North. The retreating ice edge enables the exploitation of previously inaccessible resources such as hydrocarbon deposits and rare metals, as well as the shortest sea route from Asia to Europe. Consequently, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) promises faster and cheaper shipping. Russia, along side foreign investment, especially from China, is financing the needed infrastructure. A warming Arctic, however, also has negative impacts. The Arctic is home to fragile ecosystems that are already showing signs of deteriorating. The Arctic has seen unprecedented wildfires, which, together with the release of trapped methane from the disappearing permafrost, will, in turn, accelerate global warming. A warmer Arctic Ocean will also negatively impact fisheries. Couple this with other global changes, such as ocean acidification and modified ocean currents, and the global outlook is bleak. Additionally, the security situation in the Arctic is worsening. After the 2014 Ukraine crisis, the West imposed sanctions on the Russian Federation, which have revived the divisions of the Cold War. The reemergence of these postures is threatening the highly successful Barents Cooperation and other initiatives for peace in the circumpolar North. This book offers new insights and presents arguments for how to mitigate the challenges the Arctic is facing today.
This report analyzes international and domestic factors that will affect China's approach to nuclear deterrence, how those drivers may evolve over the next 15 years, and what impact they are likely to have.
Given the profound changes in international politics over past years, nuclear strategy clearly needs rethinking. Toward a Nuclear Peace analyzes the future of nuclear weapons in the defence policy of the United States and the European nuclear powers. The first part of the book, U.S. nuclear policy, considers the benefits and risks of further nuclear arms control, proposing specific recommendations for force structure, targeting, and strategic defence to enhance regional deterrence. The second part, European nuclear policy, discusses the future of nuclear weapons from British, French, and Russian perspectives. Toward a Nuclear Peace provides a most valuable service, filling a critical gap in current thinking by outlining both a short-and long-term future for nuclear forces.
Excerpt from Charting a Course: Strategic Choices for a New Administration: The new administration takes office in a time of great complexity. Our new President faces a national security environment shaped by strong currents: globalization; the proliferation of new, poor, and weak states, as well as nonstate actors; an enduring landscape of violent extremist organizations; slow economic growth; the rise of China and a revanchist Russia; a collapsing Middle East; and a domestic politics wracked by division and mistrust. While in absolute terms the Nation and the world are safer than in the last century, today the United States finds itself almost on a permanent war footing, engaged in military operations around the world. [...] No formal document describes a grand strategy for the United States, and indeed, many academics deny that one exists. Yet a close look at our history as a world power suggests that core interests and how we secure them have remained generally consistent over time. If grand strategy "rises above particular strategies intended to secure particular objectives," many decades of focusing on nuclear deterrence, power projection, alliances and partnerships, and military and economic strength probably constitute the underpinnings of a coherent grand strategy. How we employ and leverage these instruments of national power to protect, defend, and advance the national interest is, after all, the essence of grand strategy. In a dangerous world, these pillars have provided a strong foundation for national security. If our domestic politics can achieve consensus on future threats and solutions, America is well positioned to lead and prosper in a world that will remain both dangerous and uncertain. R.D. Hooker, Jr. Director, Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University Washington, D.C. Related items: Policy Analysis in National Security Affairs: New Methods for a New Era can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/008-020-01561-0 Operationalizing Counter Threat Finance Strategies can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/008-000-01131-1